Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing17/29, 211 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Trevor LawrenceRushing4 CAR, 29 YDS
- Evan EngramReceiving10 REC, 95 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing26/35, 283 YDS, 2 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing20 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- Mike EvansReceiving7 REC, 86 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:36Calvin Ridley 1 Yd pass from C.J. Beathard (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–30
- Q30:50Calvin Ridley 18 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–30
- Q33:49Chase McLaughlin 51 Yd Field Goal0–30
- Q311:30Rachaad White 2 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–27
- Q20:45Mike Evans 22 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–20
- Q22:27Chase McLaughlin 31 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q212:53Mike Evans 3 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–10
- Q17:22Chase McLaughlin 24 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:22Chase McLaughlin 24 Yd Field GoalJAX 0 – 3 TB · TB 56% → 64% +8TB 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q212:53Mike Evans 3 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)JAX 0 – 10 TB · TB 64% → 81% +17TB 64% → 81%+17 pts
- Q22:27Chase McLaughlin 31 Yd Field GoalJAX 0 – 13 TB · TB 83% → 89% +6TB 83% → 89%+6 pts
- Q20:45Mike Evans 22 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)JAX 0 – 20 TB · TB 89% → 97% +7TB 89% → 97%+7 pts
- Q311:30Rachaad White 2 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)JAX 0 – 27 TB · TB 98% → >99% +2TB 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Buccaneers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -2
- TB 57%
- Fair odds
- TB -128
- JAX +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 21.2 – 23.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +48 Elo | TB 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3222.8 | Points scored | 21.120th of 32 |
| 20th of 3222.4 | Points allowed | 20.711th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.413th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.18 | Yards per play | 5.1617th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.62 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6629th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 3–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.