Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing22/28, 381 YDS, 4 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing21 CAR, 89 YDS
- Chris Godwin Jr.Receiving10 REC, 155 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing29/39, 284 YDS, 2 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing13 CAR, 53 YDS
- Dontayvion WicksReceiving6 REC, 97 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:30David Moore 52 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)34–20
- Q410:04Anders Carlson 33 Yd Field Goal27–20
- Q30:20Ko Kieft 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)27–17
- Q34:18Jayden Reed 17 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)20–17
- Q310:55Rachaad White 26 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)20–10
- Q20:10Chase McLaughlin 46 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q27:09Anders Carlson 36 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q212:21Mike Evans 19 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–7
- Q10:49Tucker Kraft 5 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)3–7
- Q19:02Chase McLaughlin 39 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:49Tucker Kraft 5 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)TB 3 – 7 GB · GB 49% → 69% +19GB 49% → 69%+19 pts
- Q212:21Mike Evans 19 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 10 – 7 GB · TB 31% → 51% +20TB 31% → 51%+20 pts
- Q310:55Rachaad White 26 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 20 – 10 GB · TB 55% → 79% +24TB 55% → 79%+24 pts
- Q34:18Jayden Reed 17 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)TB 20 – 17 GB · GB 16% → 42% +26GB 16% → 42%+26 pts
- Q30:20Ko Kieft 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 27 – 17 GB · TB 60% → 87% +27TB 60% → 87%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Packers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -3
- GB 60%
- Fair odds
- GB -145
- TB +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 20.0 – 22.6 GB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | TB: Baker Mayfield · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +74 Elo | GB 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 59.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.2 | Points scored | 21.518th of 32 |
| 13th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 20.511th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +1.013th of 32 |
| 24th of 324.98 | Yards per play | 5.3613th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.67 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2920th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 13th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.