Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing21/36, 260 YDS, 2 TD
- Justin HerbertRushing8 CAR, 73 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving10 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
Packers- Jordan LovePassing27/40, 322 YDS, 2 TD
- Jayden ReedRushing3 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- Dontayvion WicksReceiving3 REC, 91 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:33Romeo Doubs 24 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)20–23
- Q45:24Keenan Allen 10 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)20–16
- Q30:04Christian Watson 11 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson PAT failed)13–16
- Q310:44Cameron Dicker 26 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q20:07Anders Carlson 28 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q212:16Stone Smartt 51 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–7
- Q214:53Jayden Reed 32 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)3–7
- Q11:22Cameron Dicker 25 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:53Jayden Reed 32 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)LAC 3 – 7 GB · GB 37% → 57% +20GB 37% → 57%+20 pts
- Q212:16Stone Smartt 51 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 10 – 7 GB · LAC 42% → 63% +21LAC 42% → 63%+21 pts
- Q30:04Christian Watson 11 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson PAT failed)LAC 13 – 16 GB · GB 33% → 62% +29GB 33% → 62%+29 pts
- Q45:24Keenan Allen 10 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 20 – 16 GB · LAC 28% → 81% +53LAC 28% → 81%+53 pts
- Q42:33Romeo Doubs 24 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)LAC 20 – 23 GB · GB 11% → 81% +71GB 11% → 81%+71 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chargers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- LAC 57%
- Fair odds
- LAC -121
- GB +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 22.9 – 21.5 GB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | LAC: Justin Herbert · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +52 Elo | LAC 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 54.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.6 | Points scored | 19.921st of 32 |
| 24th of 3223.9 | Points allowed | 20.211th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+2.7 | Margin | −0.317th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.44 | Yards per play | 5.1517th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.86 | Yards allowed per play | 4.946th of 32 |
| 10th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.