Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing16/30, 182 YDS, 3 INT
- AJ DillonRushing20 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian WatsonReceiving3 REC, 91 YDS
Raiders- Jimmy GaroppoloPassing22/31, 208 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing20 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving7 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q414:56Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)13–17
- Q35:16Anders Carlson 22 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q38:27AJ Dillon 5 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)10–10
- Q22:32Daniel Carlson 26 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q24:09Jakobi Meyers 9 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Daniel Carlson Kick)3–7
- Q12:38Anders Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:09Jakobi Meyers 9 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Daniel Carlson Kick)GB 3 – 7 LV · LV 38% → 61% +23LV 38% → 61%+23 pts
- Q22:32Daniel Carlson 26 Yd Field GoalGB 3 – 10 LV · LV 61% → 71% +9LV 61% → 71%+9 pts
- Q38:27AJ Dillon 5 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 10 – 10 LV · GB 26% → 52% +26GB 26% → 52%+26 pts
- Q35:16Anders Carlson 22 Yd Field GoalGB 13 – 10 LV · GB 52% → 64% +13GB 52% → 64%+13 pts
- Q414:56Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)GB 13 – 17 LV · LV 34% → 68% +34LV 34% → 68%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Packers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -1.5
- GB 55%
- Fair odds
- GB -113
- LV +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 22.6 – 21.7 LV
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +1 | GB: Jordan Love · LV: Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +37 Elo | GB 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 53.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.0 | Points scored | 15.530th of 32 |
| 21st of 3224.0 | Points allowed | 25.323rd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −9.827th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.86 | Yards per play | 4.9023rd of 32 |
| 9th of 325.02 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2917th of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.