Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Jimmy GaroppoloPassing16/24, 185 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Tre TuckerRushing1 CAR, 34 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving6 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Bills- Josh AllenPassing31/37, 274 YDS, 3 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing17 CAR, 123 YDS
- Gabe DavisReceiving6 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:08Damien Harris 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)10–38
- Q414:56Tyler Bass 29 Yd Field Goal10–31
- Q35:59Gabe Davis 2 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)10–28
- Q20:18Khalil Shakir 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)10–21
- Q26:48Daniel Carlson 47 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q212:10Dawson Knox 2 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)7–14
- Q14:19Latavius Murray 4 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–7
- Q112:16Davante Adams 16 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:16Davante Adams 16 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 7 – 0 BUF · LV 49% → 66% +18LV 49% → 66%+18 pts
- Q14:19Latavius Murray 4 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)LV 7 – 7 BUF · BUF 32% → 51% +19BUF 32% → 51%+19 pts
- Q212:10Dawson Knox 2 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)LV 7 – 14 BUF · BUF 51% → 71% +20BUF 51% → 71%+20 pts
- Q20:18Khalil Shakir 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)LV 10 – 21 BUF · BUF 65% → 84% +19BUF 65% → 84%+19 pts
- Q35:59Gabe Davis 2 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)LV 10 – 28 BUF · BUF 88% → 97% +9BUF 88% → 97%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- BUF 51%
- Fair odds
- BUF -106
- LV +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 21.4 – 21.8 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | LV: Jimmy Garoppolo · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +5 Elo | BUF 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 51.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3217.0 | Points scored | 16.022nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3216.0 | Points allowed | 22.019th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −6.024th of 32 |
| 17th of 324.75 | Yards per play | 4.6218th of 32 |
| 12th of 324.48 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Raiders: last 1