Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Jimmy GaroppoloPassing20/26, 200 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing19 CAR, 48 YDS
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving9 REC, 81 YDS, 2 TD
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing27/34, 177 YDS, 2 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing13 CAR, 52 YDS
- Samaje PerineReceiving4 REC, 37 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:34Jakobi Meyers 6 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Daniel Carlson Kick)17–16
- Q48:54Wil Lutz 24 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q20:12Courtland Sutton 5 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)10–13
- Q210:54Daniel Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q10:44Lil'Jordan Humphrey 5 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz PAT failed)7–6
- Q19:28Jakobi Meyers 3 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:28Jakobi Meyers 3 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 7 – 0 DEN · LV 45% → 63% +18LV 45% → 63%+18 pts
- Q10:44Lil'Jordan Humphrey 5 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz PAT failed)LV 7 – 6 DEN · DEN 35% → 52% +17DEN 35% → 52%+17 pts
- Q20:12Courtland Sutton 5 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)LV 10 – 13 DEN · DEN 40% → 64% +24DEN 40% → 64%+24 pts
- Q48:54Wil Lutz 24 Yd Field GoalLV 10 – 16 DEN · DEN 71% → 85% +14DEN 71% → 85%+14 pts
- Q46:34Jakobi Meyers 6 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 17 – 16 DEN · LV 12% → 56% +44LV 12% → 56%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Broncos 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 55%
- Fair odds
- DEN -123
- LV +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 21.1 – 22.6 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | LV: Jimmy Garoppolo · DEN: Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +36 Elo | DEN 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.