NFL · 2026
Buffalo Bills
7-1 · #1 of 32 by Elo
Elo rating
1718
#1 of 32 · 1500 is average
Market rating
1643
#1 of 32 by recent lines
This season
+115
Elo change since opening night
Forecasts on their games
63%
5–3 this season
Offense
+4.9 pts
#1 of 32 · scored a game above average
Defense
+0.2 pts
#14 of 32 · allowed a game below average
By the numbers
This season, regular season, each with its league rank. Scoring and margin are a game; opponent Elo is how strong the teams they've played are.
- Points scored
- 32.0
- 1st of 32
- Points allowed
- 23.4
- 16th fewest of 32
- Margin
- +8.6
- 3rd of 32
- Yards per play
- 6.01
- 4th of 32
- Yards allowed per play
- 5.22
- 13th of 32
- At home
- 3–1
- 9th of 32
- On the road
- 4–0
- 1st of 32
- Opponent Elo
- 1515
- 10th toughest of 32
Season outlook
From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season and the playoffs, with standings ties broken by coin flip. Every team and how it works
Projected record
14-3
Now 7-1 · middle 80%: 12–15 wins
Make the playoffs
>99%
Division: 97% · Top seed: 50%
About 10 wins usually gets them in
Reach the Super Bowl
35%
Win it all
21%
In 2,105 of 10,000 simulations
Playoff chances this season
Their chance to make the playoffs from each day's simulation of the rest of the season, since Nov 3. Now 100%.
Upcoming
Forecasts for their next games. Their next 3 opponents average 1413 Elo, the 2nd-easiest stretch of the league's 32.
Players
Who's been playing, busiest first. Each has projections, prop lines and recent games against the line.
Rating history
Elo over the last two seasons. The dashed line is league average.
Against the line
This season, against each game's closing spread and total.
- Against the spread
- 6–2
- Last 10
- 6–2
- As the favorite
- 5–2
- As the underdog
- 1–0
- Overs–unders
- 5–3
- Overs–unders, last 10
- 5–3
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Recent results
Last ten games and whether the forecast hit.
Last 10, oldest first: W L W W W L W W W W
- W
@ MIN 23–6Picked BUF 60%Nov 9Hit - W
vs BAL 36–10Picked BUF 60%Nov 1Hit - W
@ LV 33–30Picked BUF 70%Oct 18Hit - W
@ LAR 37–34Picked LAR 61%Oct 12Miss - L
vs NE 26–29Picked BUF 74%Oct 4Miss - W
vs LAC 24–16Picked BUF 75%Sep 27Hit - W
vs DET 41–31Picked BUF 68%Sep 17Hit - W
@ HOU 36–31Picked HOU 51%Sep 13Miss - L
@ DEN 30–33Picked DEN 53%Jan 17Hit - W
@ JAX 27–24Picked JAX 53%Jan 11Miss
Injury report
Current ESPN report, with what the model subtracts for their next game.
Keleki Latu TE
ActiveLatu caught his lone target for a 25-yard touchdown Monday in a 23-6 win against the Vikings.
Jackson Hawes TE
ActiveHawes caught his lone target for eight yards during Buffalo's win over the Vikings on Monday.
Tyler Bass PK
ActiveBass connected on all three of his field-goal attempts and made both of his extra-point tries during the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday.
Dawson Knox TE
ActiveKnox caught four passes for 37 yards on five targets in Monday night's 23-6 win over the Vikings.
Mike Danna DE
ActiveSkyler Bell WR
ActiveJalon Kilgore S
ActiveKeon Coleman WR
ActiveColeman finished Monday's 23-6 win over the Vikings with three catches for 17 yards on six targets.
Ty Johnson RB
ActiveJohnson rushed once for one yard and caught both of his targets for 36 yards against the Vikings in a 23-6 victory Monday.
Khalil Shakir WR
ActiveShakir secured all four targets for 58 yards in the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday night.
Ray Davis RB
ActiveDavis logged two carries for two yards and didn't catch his only target Monday in a 23-6 victory against the Vikings.
Dalton Kincaid TE
ActiveKincaid secured all three targets for 28 yards in the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday night.
DJ Moore WR
ActiveMoore secured three of five targets for 25 yards and rushed once for 11 yards in the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday night.
Josh Allen QB
ActiveAllen completed 21 of 31 passes for 234 yards with one touchdown and one interception while adding six carries for 15 yards in the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday night.
James Cook III RB
ActiveCook rushed 31 times for 107 yards and a touchdown and failed to bring in his only target in the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday night.
Damar Hamlin S
ActiveHamlin (leg) has returned to Buffalo's matchup versus the Vikings on Monday, Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 Buffalo reports.
Christian Benford CB
ActiveBenford (wrist) has returned to Monday night's matchup with Minnesota.
Joshua Palmer WR
Injured Reserveir
Greg Gaines DT
QuestionableGaines (calf) is inactive for Monday's game versus Minnesota.
Alec Anderson OT
QuestionableAnderson (ankle) is inactive for Monday's matchup against Minnesota.