Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Bills favored by 16.5, and the forecast follows it (Bills 91%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Bills more, at 94%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Bills rate higher (1718 to 1372 Elo), the Dolphins are expected to start Kyle McCord instead of Tua Tagovailoa and the Bills have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Dolphins
Now <1%
0%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Bills
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bills 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
- Market
- BUF -16.5
- ML MIA +950 / BUF -1650
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 94%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -19.5
- BUF 94%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 94.2%, market 90.8%
- Fair odds
- BUF -1028
- MIA +1028 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MIA 15.0 – 31.5 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1718 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −103 | — | MIA: Kyle McCord, usually Tua Tagovailoa · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +485 Elo | BUF 94.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 92.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 93.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 91.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3215.8 | Points scored | 32.01st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3225.0 | Points allowed | 23.416th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−9.3 | Margin | +8.63rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.04 | Yards per play | 6.014th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.56 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2213th of 32 |
| 27th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 32 |
| 8th of 321527 | Opponent Elo | 151510th of 32 |
| 28th of 321372 | Elo rating | 17181st of 32 |
| 29th of 32−2.0 | Offense, adjusted | +4.91st of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−1.0 | Defense, adjusted | +0.214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Dolphins
25 listedKevin Coleman Jr. WR
ActiveColeman wasn't targeted in Sunday's 19-9 loss to the Lions. He rushed one time for 16 yards.
Chris Bell WR
ActiveBell failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 19-9 loss to the Lions.
Malik Willis QB
Injured Reserveir
Zach Sieler DT
Injured ReserveThe Dolphins placed Sieler (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Kyle McCord QB
ActiveMcCord will step in as the Dolphins' starting quarterback beginning with Sunday's game at Indianapolis after Miami placed Malik Willis (core) on injured reserve Tuesday, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Jaylen Wright RB
Questionablequestionable
Zane Gonzalez PK
ActiveGonzalez reverted to the Dolphins' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Kaytron Allen RB
ActiveAllen caught a 46-yard pass in Sunday's 19-9 loss to the Lions. He rushed one time for minus-1 yard.
Christian Haynes G
ActiveMarcellas Dial Jr. CB
ActiveJalen Tolbert WR
ActiveJustin Joly TE
Active
Bills
25 listedKeleki Latu TE
ActiveLatu caught his lone target for a 25-yard touchdown Monday in a 23-6 win against the Vikings.
Jackson Hawes TE
ActiveHawes caught his lone target for eight yards during Buffalo's win over the Vikings on Monday.
Tyler Bass PK
ActiveBass connected on all three of his field-goal attempts and made both of his extra-point tries during the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday.
Dawson Knox TE
ActiveKnox caught four passes for 37 yards on five targets in Monday night's 23-6 win over the Vikings.
Mike Danna DE
ActiveSkyler Bell WR
ActiveJalon Kilgore S
ActiveKeon Coleman WR
ActiveColeman finished Monday's 23-6 win over the Vikings with three catches for 17 yards on six targets.
Ty Johnson RB
ActiveJohnson rushed once for one yard and caught both of his targets for 36 yards against the Vikings in a 23-6 victory Monday.
Khalil Shakir WR
ActiveShakir secured all four targets for 58 yards in the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday night.
Ray Davis RB
ActiveDavis logged two carries for two yards and didn't catch his only target Monday in a 23-6 victory against the Vikings.
Dalton Kincaid TE
ActiveKincaid secured all three targets for 28 yards in the Bills' 23-6 win over the Vikings on Monday night.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | — | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–5 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.