Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing30/38, 359 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Josh AllenRushing15 CAR, 67 YDS
- Khalil ShakirReceiving6 REC, 105 YDS
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing17/27, 173 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing10 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyreek HillReceiving7 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:16Dawson Knox 5 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)21–14
- Q413:42Deonte Harty 96 Yd Punt Return (Tyler Bass Kick)14–14
- Q21:43Tyreek Hill 3 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)7–14
- Q24:31Trent Sherfield 6 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)7–7
- Q28:51De'Von Achane 25 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:51De'Von Achane 25 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)BUF 0 – 7 MIA · MIA 52% → 72% +21MIA 52% → 72%+21 pts
- Q24:31Trent Sherfield 6 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 7 – 7 MIA · BUF 27% → 48% +22BUF 27% → 48%+22 pts
- Q21:43Tyreek Hill 3 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)BUF 7 – 14 MIA · MIA 51% → 74% +22MIA 51% → 74%+22 pts
- Q413:42Deonte Harty 96 Yd Punt Return (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 14 – 14 MIA · BUF 17% → 49% +32BUF 17% → 49%+32 pts
- Q47:16Dawson Knox 5 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 21 – 14 MIA · BUF 49% → 89% +40BUF 49% → 89%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dolphins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -108
- BUF +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 23.7 – 24.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1629 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BUF: Josh Allen · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +4 Elo | MIA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3226.9 | Points scored | 30.11st of 32 |
| 5th of 3218.6 | Points allowed | 23.122nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+8.3 | Margin | +7.05th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.68 | Yards per play | 6.512nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325.12 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0410th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.