Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Will LevisPassing23/38, 327 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing17 CAR, 34 YDS, 2 TD
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving7 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing23/33, 240 YDS
- Raheem MostertRushing21 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving6 REC, 79 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:49Derrick Henry 3 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)28–27
- Q42:40DeAndre Hopkins 3 Yd pass from Will Levis (Will Levis Pass to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for Two-Point Conversion)21–27
- Q44:34Raheem Mostert 5 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)13–27
- Q45:34Raheem Mostert 3 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)13–20
- Q412:37Jason Sanders 31 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q30:09Nick Folk 23 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q39:35Jason Sanders 20 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q20:00Nick Folk 28 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q26:53Derrick Henry 1 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)7–7
- Q18:25Zach Sieler 5 Yd Interception Return (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:53Derrick Henry 1 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 7 – 7 MIA · TEN 15% → 32% +17TEN 15% → 32%+17 pts
- Q30:09Nick Folk 23 Yd Field GoalTEN 13 – 10 MIA · TEN 38% → 53% +15TEN 38% → 53%+15 pts
- Q412:37Jason Sanders 31 Yd Field GoalTEN 13 – 13 MIA · MIA 45% → 61% +16MIA 45% → 61%+16 pts
- Q45:34Raheem Mostert 3 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)TEN 13 – 20 MIA · MIA 57% → 95% +37MIA 57% → 95%+37 pts
- Q41:49Derrick Henry 3 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 28 – 27 MIA · TEN 1% → 60% +59TEN 1% → 60%+59 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dolphins 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -8
- MIA 76%
- Fair odds
- MIA -270
- TEN +270 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 19.1 – 26.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1599 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +17 | — | TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +205 Elo | MIA 76.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 73.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3217.8 | Points scored | 32.02nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3221.3 | Points allowed | 22.220th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−3.5 | Margin | +9.84th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.01 | Yards per play | 6.861st of 32 |
| 17th of 325.26 | Yards allowed per play | 4.865th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 31st of 320–6 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.