Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing21/30, 243 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Raheem MostertRushing20 CAR, 94 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving8 REC, 114 YDS
Jets- Tim BoylePassing27/38, 179 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Breece HallRushing7 CAR, 25 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving7 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:35Raheem Mostert 34 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)34–13
- Q44:37Garrett Wilson 1 Yd pass from Tim Boyle (Greg Zuerlein Kick)27–13
- Q414:55Raheem Mostert 13 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)27–6
- Q311:16Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field Goal20–6
- Q20:00Jevon Holland 99 Yd Interception Return (Jason Sanders Kick)17–6
- Q20:58Brandin Echols 30 Yd Interception Return (Greg Zuerlein PAT failed)10–6
- Q28:21Tyreek Hill 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)10–0
- Q11:26Jason Sanders 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:26Jason Sanders 38 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 0 NYJ · MIA 60% → 68% +8MIA 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q28:21Tyreek Hill 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 10 – 0 NYJ · MIA 68% → 85% +16MIA 68% → 85%+16 pts
- Q20:58Brandin Echols 30 Yd Interception Return (Greg Zuerlein PAT failed)MIA 10 – 6 NYJ · NYJ 14% → 29% +15NYJ 14% → 29%+15 pts
- Q20:00Jevon Holland 99 Yd Interception Return (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 17 – 6 NYJ · MIA 72% → 88% +17MIA 72% → 88%+17 pts
- Q311:16Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field GoalMIA 20 – 6 NYJ · MIA 89% → 94% +4MIA 89% → 94%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dolphins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4.5
- MIA 65%
- Fair odds
- MIA -162
- NYJ +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 23.7 – 20.3 NYJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −17 | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · NYJ: Tim Boyle, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +107 Elo | MIA 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 61.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3230.5 | Points scored | 15.030th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3223.8 | Points allowed | 20.411th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+6.7 | Margin | −5.427th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.99 | Yards per play | 4.5529th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.06 | Yards allowed per play | 4.714th of 32 |
| 9th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.