New York Jets at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Zach WilsonPassing7/15, 81 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing10 CAR, 23 YDS
- Breece HallReceiving5 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
Bills- Josh AllenPassing20/32, 275 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing17 CAR, 73 YDS
- Khalil ShakirReceiving3 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:16Tyler Bass 50 Yd Field Goal6–32
- Q36:29Khalil Shakir 81 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)6–29
- Q310:34Ty Johnson 28 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass PAT failed)6–22
- Q20:45Breece Hall 9 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–16
- Q23:03James Cook 5 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)0–16
- Q211:26Tyler Bass 33 Yd Field Goal0–9
- Q15:56Tyler Bass 30 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q113:31Tyler Bass 48 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:31Tyler Bass 48 Yd Field GoalNYJ 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 60% → 67% +7BUF 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q15:56Tyler Bass 30 Yd Field GoalNYJ 0 – 6 BUF · BUF 67% → 74% +7BUF 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q23:03James Cook 5 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)NYJ 0 – 16 BUF · BUF 83% → 94% +11BUF 83% → 94%+11 pts
- Q20:45Breece Hall 9 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)NYJ 6 – 16 BUF · NYJ 6% → 14% +9NYJ 6% → 14%+9 pts
- Q310:34Ty Johnson 28 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass PAT failed)NYJ 6 – 22 BUF · BUF 87% → 96% +9BUF 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -3.5
- BUF 62%
- Fair odds
- BUF -149
- NYJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 19.4 – 22.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +23 | — | NYJ: Zach Wilson, usually Aaron Rodgers · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +87 Elo | BUF 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 59.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3216.0 | Points scored | 26.27th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 18.46th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−3.1 | Margin | +7.84th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.72 | Yards per play | 6.003rd of 32 |
| 4th of 324.62 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4124th of 32 |
| 9th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYJ 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.