New York Jets at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Zach WilsonPassing19/26, 199 YDS, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing22 CAR, 177 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler ConklinReceiving4 REC, 67 YDS
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing20/31, 196 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaleel McLaughlinRushing9 CAR, 68 YDS
- Samaje PerineReceiving4 REC, 73 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:29Bryce Hall 39 Yd Fumble Return (Greg Zuerlein Kick)31–21
- Q44:44Adam Trautman 3 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Michael Burton Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–21
- Q47:27Greg Zuerlein 49 Yd Field Goal24–13
- Q412:19Greg Zuerlein 22 Yd Field Goal21–13
- Q35:16Greg Zuerlein 27 Yd Field Goal18–13
- Q313:29Breece Hall 72 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)15–13
- Q21:48Wil Lutz 22 Yd Field Goal8–13
- Q26:41Greg Zuerlein 26 Yd Field Goal8–10
- Q212:47Wil Lutz 23 Yd Field Goal5–10
- Q14:24Penalty Russell Wilson, Intentional Grounding in End Zone, Team Safety5–7
- Q17:34Jaleel McLaughlin 22 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)3–7
- Q111:19Greg Zuerlein 30 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:34Jaleel McLaughlin 22 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)NYJ 3 – 7 DEN · DEN 47% → 65% +18DEN 47% → 65%+18 pts
- Q313:29Breece Hall 72 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NYJ 15 – 13 DEN · NYJ 29% → 54% +24NYJ 29% → 54%+24 pts
- Q35:16Greg Zuerlein 27 Yd Field GoalNYJ 18 – 13 DEN · NYJ 56% → 68% +12NYJ 56% → 68%+12 pts
- Q412:19Greg Zuerlein 22 Yd Field GoalNYJ 21 – 13 DEN · NYJ 74% → 85% +12NYJ 74% → 85%+12 pts
- Q44:44Adam Trautman 3 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Michael Burton Run for Two-Point Conversion)NYJ 24 – 21 DEN · DEN <1% → 26% +25DEN <1% → 26%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Broncos 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 55%
- Fair odds
- DEN -122
- NYJ +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 21.9 – 23.3 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | — | NYJ: Zach Wilson, usually Aaron Rodgers · DEN: Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +37 Elo | DEN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 55.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.5 | Points scored | 25.010th of 32 |
| 14th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 37.532nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−5.5 | Margin | −12.530th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.66 | Yards per play | 5.876th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.09 | Yards allowed per play | 7.0532nd of 32 |
| 27th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 0–224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.