New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Zach WilsonPassing12/27, 170 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Zach WilsonRushing5 CAR, 36 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving2 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing31/38, 255 YDS, 2 TD
- Tony PollardRushing25 CAR, 72 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving11 REC, 143 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:18Brandon Aubrey 30 Yd Field Goal10–30
- Q412:23Brandon Aubrey 26 Yd Field Goal10–27
- Q35:19Brandon Aubrey 55 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q37:24Brandon Aubrey 21 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q20:04Austin Seibert 34 Yd Field Goal10–18
- Q21:52Luke Schoonmaker 1 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Tony Pollard Run for Two-Point Conversion)7–18
- Q27:12Garrett Wilson 68 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Austin Seibert Kick)7–10
- Q29:10Brandon Aubrey 35 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q19:19Jake Ferguson 4 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:19Jake Ferguson 4 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)NYJ 0 – 7 DAL · DAL 58% → 74% +17DAL 58% → 74%+17 pts
- Q29:10Brandon Aubrey 35 Yd Field GoalNYJ 0 – 10 DAL · DAL 76% → 83% +7DAL 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q27:12Garrett Wilson 68 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Austin Seibert Kick)NYJ 7 – 10 DAL · NYJ 17% → 35% +18NYJ 17% → 35%+18 pts
- Q21:52Luke Schoonmaker 1 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Tony Pollard Run for Two-Point Conversion)NYJ 7 – 18 DAL · DAL 66% → 86% +21DAL 66% → 86%+21 pts
- Q37:24Brandon Aubrey 21 Yd Field GoalNYJ 10 – 21 DAL · DAL 83% → 90% +7DAL 83% → 90%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2.5
- DAL 59%
- Fair odds
- DAL -138
- NYJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 20.7 – 23.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | — | NYJ: Zach Wilson, usually Aaron Rodgers · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +63 Elo | DAL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3222.0 | Points scored | 40.01st of 32 |
| 6th of 3216.0 | Points allowed | 0.01st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+6.0 | Margin | +40.01st of 32 |
| 8th of 325.45 | Yards per play | 4.8223rd of 32 |
| 9th of 324.62 | Yards allowed per play | 2.632nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Jets: last 1