Next: BUF @ NYJ
. Over chances follow the book's number with its margin removed; our projection and model chance sit beside it.
| Stat | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rush yds | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Carries | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Rec yds | 54.8 | 56.8 | 63.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 48%* | 33% | |
| Receptions | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 4/10 games over this line | 48%* | 28% | |
| Rush+Rec yds | 54.9 | 56.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Any line
The chance he clears other lines next game, like the alternate lines books sell (25+ points and so on).
- 25+91%
- 50+64%
- Over 63.5DraftKings line48%
- 75+37%
- 100+19%
- 125+9%
- 150+4%
Read off the book's line and its chance, with how much this stat usually spreads around it. Checked on later games the fit never saw: lines put at about 17% went over 15% of the time in the NBA, 16% in the NHL and 14% in the NFL (overs ran a little short in that stretch, main lines included), and where the book posted alternate lines of its own, its prices and these chances were about even. Alternate lines carry no price here: enter your book's price on the parlay page.
Recent games
Newest first. Each stat next to the book's main line that game, where one is on file: green went over, red went under.
Bars are what he did; the dark tick is that game's line (green went over, red under); the dashed line is his next game's line.
| Game | Role | Rec yds | Receptions | Rush+Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 vs LV | 12 targets, 0 carries | 83 | 6 | 83 |
| Oct 25 vs MIA | 3 targets, 0 carries | 26 | 2 | 26 |
| Oct 18 @ NE | 6 targets, 0 carries | 44 | 4 | 44 |
| Oct 11 vs CLE | 11 targets, 0 carries | 104 | 7 | 104 |
| Oct 4 @ CHI | 4 targets, 0 carries | 27 | 3 | 27 |
| Sep 27 @ DET | 13 targets, 0 carries | 107 | 10 | 107 |
| Sep 20 vs GB | 7 targets, 0 carries | 57 | 5 | 57 |
| Sep 13 @ TEN | 7 targets, 0 carries | 79 | 6 | 79 |
| Nov 9 vs CLE | 3 targets, 0 carries | 0/ 55.5 | 0/ 4.5 | 0 |
| Oct 12 vs DEN | 8 targets, 0 carries | 13/ 56.5 | 3/ 4.5 | 13 |
| Oct 5 vs DAL | 10 targets, 0 carries | 71/ 65.5 | 6 | 71 |
| Sep 29 @ MIA | 8 targets, 0 carries | 82/ 65.5 | 6/ 5.5 | 82 |
| This season, 8 games | 65.9 | 5.4 | 65.9 | |
| Average, these 12 games | 57.8 | 4.8 | 57.8 | |
Against the line in these games: Rec yds over 2 of 4 · Receptions over 1 of 3. A handful of games says little: books move the line to his recent form, which is why streaks like these rarely carry on.
Splits
What he's averaged, cut a few ways: a description of past games, not a forecast. Home and road cover this season and last, leaving out neutral sites.
| Split | Games | Rec yds | Receptions | Rush+Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | 8 | 65.9 | 5.4 | 65.9 |
| Last season | 7 | 56.4 | 5.1 | 56.4 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 54.0 | 4.6 | 54.0 |
| At home | 8 | 60.8 | 4.6 | 60.8 |
| On the road | 6 | 70.5 | 6.5 | 70.5 |
Against Bills
His last 5 games against his next opponent, newest first, back through the seasons on file. A few games against one team is a small sample, and rosters change between seasons.
| Game | Role | Rec yds | Receptions | Rush+Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14 vs BUF | 8 targets, 0 carries | 50/ 65.5 | 4/ 5.5 | 50 |
| Dec 29 @ BUF | 8 targets, 0 carries | 66/ 49.5 | 7/ 4.5 | 66 |
| Oct 14 vs BUF | 10 targets, 0 carries | 107/ 59.5 | 8 | 107/ 62.5 |
| Nov 19 @ BUF | 8 targets, 0 carries | 9 | 2 | 9 |
| Sep 11 vs BUF | 5 targets, 0 carries | 34 | 5 | 34 |
| Average, these 5 games | 53.2 | 5.2 | 53.2 | |