Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing18/29, 237 YDS, 4 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing16 CAR, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- Ryan FlournoyReceiving6 REC, 114 YDS
Jets- Justin FieldsPassing32/46, 283 YDS, 2 TD
- Breece HallRushing14 CAR, 113 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving6 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:42Garrett Wilson 9 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Justin Fields Pass to Josh Reynolds for Two-Point Conversion)37–22
- Q44:31Javonte Williams 4 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)37–14
- Q47:56Andrew Beck 1 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Justin Fields Pass to Mason Taylor for Two-Point Conversion)30–14
- Q30:57Nick Folk 48 Yd Field Goal30–6
- Q34:33George Pickens 43 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)30–3
- Q20:15Jake Ferguson 1 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey PAT Failed)23–3
- Q20:57Javonte Williams 5 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–3
- Q211:40Jake Ferguson 26 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–3
- Q14:57Brandon Aubrey 35 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:43Nick Folk 25 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:43Nick Folk 25 Yd Field GoalDAL 0 – 3 NYJ · NYJ 53% → 61% +8NYJ 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q14:57Brandon Aubrey 35 Yd Field GoalDAL 3 – 3 NYJ · DAL 39% → 47% +8DAL 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q211:40Jake Ferguson 26 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 10 – 3 NYJ · DAL 47% → 68% +20DAL 47% → 68%+20 pts
- Q20:57Javonte Williams 5 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 17 – 3 NYJ · DAL 71% → 88% +17DAL 71% → 88%+17 pts
- Q20:15Jake Ferguson 1 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey PAT Failed)DAL 23 – 3 NYJ · DAL 88% → 96% +8DAL 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -2.5
- ML DAL +110 / NYJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2
- NYJ 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- NYJ: Elo 43.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -115
- DAL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 22.5 – 25.0 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +34 | +24 | DAL: Dak Prescott · NYJ: Justin Fields, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +45 Elo | DAL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 53.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.5 | Points scored | 22.519th of 32 |
| 31st of 3233.0 | Points allowed | 30.028th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−4.5 | Margin | −7.527th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.92 | Yards per play | 5.3218th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.40 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3917th of 32 |
| 21st of 320–2 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 32 |
| 8th of 321541 | Opponent Elo | 15427th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321452 | Elo rating | 138126th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  DAL |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 NYJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.