Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing21/34, 188 YDS
- Javonte WilliamsRushing15 CAR, 54 YDS, 2 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving7 REC, 110 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing19/23, 152 YDS
- Jalen HurtsRushing14 CAR, 62 YDS, 2 TD
- Jahan DotsonReceiving3 REC, 59 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q38:30Jake Elliott 58 Yd Field Goal20–24
- Q20:00Brandon Aubrey 53 Yd Field Goal20–21
- Q20:51Saquon Barkley 10 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)17–21
- Q22:34Brandon Aubrey 41 Yd Field Goal17–14
- Q26:46Jalen Hurts 8 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)14–14
- Q214:56Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)14–7
- Q15:55Jalen Hurts 4 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)7–7
- Q111:49Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:49Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 0 PHI · DAL 24% → 40% +16DAL 24% → 40%+16 pts
- Q15:55Jalen Hurts 4 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)DAL 7 – 7 PHI · PHI 57% → 75% +17PHI 57% → 75%+17 pts
- Q214:56Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 14 – 7 PHI · DAL 27% → 46% +19DAL 27% → 46%+19 pts
- Q26:46Jalen Hurts 8 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)DAL 14 – 14 PHI · PHI 50% → 71% +21PHI 50% → 71%+21 pts
- Q20:51Saquon Barkley 10 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)DAL 17 – 21 PHI · PHI 60% → 81% +21PHI 60% → 81%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7.5
- ML DAL +300 / PHI -400
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -8.5
- PHI 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 77.5%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -322
- DAL +322 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 20.0 – 27.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1702 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +39 | +10 | DAL: Dak Prescott · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +215 Elo | PHI 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 76.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 76.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3220.6 | Points scored | 27.27th of 32 |
| 31st of 3227.5 | Points allowed | 17.82nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−6.9 | Margin | +9.42nd of 32 |
| 25th of 325.04 | Yards per play | 5.6011th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.77 | Yards allowed per play | 4.741st of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 10th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  DAL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.