Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing29/48, 255 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jayden DanielsRushing6 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- Zach ErtzReceiving11 REC, 104 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing20/28, 246 YDS, 1 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing15 CAR, 118 YDS, 3 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving6 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:03Will Shipley 2 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)23–55
- Q47:58Saquon Barkley 4 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)23–48
- Q412:24Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)23–41
- Q35:01Jayden Daniels 10 Yd Rush (Jayden Daniels Pass to Olamide Zaccheaus for Two-Point Conversion)23–34
- Q38:58Jalen Hurts 9 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)15–34
- Q20:02Zane Gonzalez 42 Yd Field Goal15–27
- Q20:39A.J. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)12–27
- Q21:44Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)12–20
- Q27:05Terry McLaurin 36 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–14
- Q214:42Zane Gonzalez 46 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q13:43Saquon Barkley 4 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)3–14
- Q17:39Saquon Barkley 60 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)3–7
- Q17:57Zane Gonzalez 34 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:39Saquon Barkley 60 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)WSH 3 – 7 PHI · PHI 62% → 78% +16PHI 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q13:43Saquon Barkley 4 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)WSH 3 – 14 PHI · PHI 78% → 90% +12PHI 78% → 90%+12 pts
- Q27:05Terry McLaurin 36 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)WSH 12 – 14 PHI · WSH 14% → 28% +14WSH 14% → 28%+14 pts
- Q21:44Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)WSH 12 – 20 PHI · PHI 72% → 86% +15PHI 72% → 86%+15 pts
- Q20:39A.J. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)WSH 12 – 27 PHI · PHI 86% → 96% +9PHI 86% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -6.5
- ML WSH +230 / PHI -280
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6
- PHI 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 70.0%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -242
- WSH +242 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 20.5 – 27.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1607 | 1745 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +37 | +10 | WSH: Jayden Daniels · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +147 Elo | PHI 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 70.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 70.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.5 | Points scored | 27.27th of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 17.82nd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.5 | Margin | +9.42nd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.71 | Yards per play | 5.6011th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.40 | Yards allowed per play | 4.741st of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 10th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–6 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–7 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.