Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing20/33, 212 YDS, 3 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing18 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- Jayden ReedReceiving4 REC, 46 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing13/21, 131 YDS, 2 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing25 CAR, 119 YDS
- DeVonta SmithReceiving4 REC, 55 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:12Jake Elliott 32 Yd Field Goal10–22
- Q47:33Jake Elliott 30 Yd Field Goal10–19
- Q414:56Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)10–16
- Q33:20Dallas Goedert 24 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott PAT Failed)3–16
- Q35:46Brandon McManus 26 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q10:19Jake Elliott 31 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q113:21Jahan Dotson 11 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:21Jahan Dotson 11 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)GB 0 – 7 PHI · PHI 70% → 83% +14PHI 70% → 83%+14 pts
- Q35:46Brandon McManus 26 Yd Field GoalGB 3 – 10 PHI · GB 8% → 15% +6GB 8% → 15%+6 pts
- Q33:20Dallas Goedert 24 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott PAT Failed)GB 3 – 16 PHI · PHI 86% → 96% +10PHI 86% → 96%+10 pts
- Q414:56Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 10 – 16 PHI · GB 3% → 15% +13GB 3% → 15%+13 pts
- Q47:33Jake Elliott 30 Yd Field GoalGB 10 – 19 PHI · PHI 89% → 96% +7PHI 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -5.5
- ML GB +220 / PHI -270
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5
- PHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 67.1%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -231
- GB +231 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 20.0 – 25.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1628 | 1712 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +11 | GB: Jordan Love · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +124 Elo | PHI 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 69.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3227.1 | Points scored | 27.27th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.9 | Points allowed | 17.82nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+7.2 | Margin | +9.42nd of 32 |
| 5th of 326.14 | Yards per play | 5.6011th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.16 | Yards allowed per play | 4.741st of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 6th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–7 | 10–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.