Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Russell WilsonPassing14/22, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- Najee HarrisRushing6 CAR, 14 YDS
- Calvin Austin IIIReceiving5 REC, 65 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing25/32, 290 YDS, 2 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing19 CAR, 65 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving8 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q414:17Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)13–27
- Q37:52Jake Elliott 41 Yd Field Goal13–20
- Q20:37Chris Boswell 49 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q22:34Pat Freiermuth 9 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)10–17
- Q29:07DeVonta Smith 2 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)3–17
- Q11:13A.J. Brown 5 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)3–10
- Q13:42Chris Boswell 37 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:56Jake Elliott 34 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:13A.J. Brown 5 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PIT 3 – 10 PHI · PHI 66% → 82% +16PHI 66% → 82%+16 pts
- Q29:07DeVonta Smith 2 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PIT 3 – 17 PHI · PHI 82% → 93% +11PHI 82% → 93%+11 pts
- Q22:34Pat Freiermuth 9 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 10 – 17 PHI · PIT 6% → 17% +11PIT 6% → 17%+11 pts
- Q37:52Jake Elliott 41 Yd Field GoalPIT 13 – 20 PHI · PHI 76% → 84% +8PHI 76% → 84%+8 pts
- Q414:17Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PIT 13 – 27 PHI · PHI 87% → 98% +11PHI 87% → 98%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -5.5
- ML PIT +210 / PHI -250
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.3%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -215
- PIT +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 19.0 – 24.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1680 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +47 | — | PIT: Russell Wilson, usually Kenny Pickett · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +73 Elo | PHI 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 68.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3224.8 | Points scored | 26.38th of 32 |
| 5th of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 18.02nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+6.5 | Margin | +8.33rd of 32 |
| 21st of 325.18 | Yards per play | 5.7612th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.26 | Yards allowed per play | 4.741st of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 32 |
| 7th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–3 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.