Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Russell WilsonPassing29/38, 414 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Najee HarrisRushing16 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- George PickensReceiving3 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing28/38, 309 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Chase BrownRushing12 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving6 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:39Andrei Iosivas 3 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)44–38
- Q43:53Chris Boswell 30 Yd Field Goal44–31
- Q48:39Tee Higgins 1 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)41–31
- Q411:06Payton Wilson 21 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Boswell Kick)41–24
- Q30:22Pat Freiermuth 25 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)34–24
- Q33:53Evan McPherson 38 Yd Field Goal27–24
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 34 Yd Field Goal27–21
- Q23:31Chris Boswell 50 Yd Field Goal24–21
- Q27:19Najee Harris 10 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)21–21
- Q29:52Ja'Marr Chase 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)14–21
- Q214:56Calvin Austin III 23 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)14–14
- Q15:01Chase Brown 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)7–14
- Q17:41George Pickens 17 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)7–7
- Q111:49Cam Taylor-Britt 51 Yd Interception Return (Evan McPherson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:01Chase Brown 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)PIT 7 – 14 CIN · CIN 59% → 76% +17CIN 59% → 76%+17 pts
- Q214:56Calvin Austin III 23 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 14 – 14 CIN · PIT 24% → 42% +18PIT 24% → 42%+18 pts
- Q29:52Ja'Marr Chase 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)PIT 14 – 21 CIN · CIN 58% → 77% +19CIN 58% → 77%+19 pts
- Q27:19Najee Harris 10 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 21 – 21 CIN · PIT 23% → 42% +20PIT 23% → 42%+20 pts
- Q30:22Pat Freiermuth 25 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 34 – 24 CIN · PIT 60% → 87% +27PIT 60% → 87%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -3.5
- ML PIT +150 / CIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 41%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -3.5
- CIN 37%
- Ratings vs. market
- −24.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 37.4%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -148
- PIT +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 21.5 – 25.0 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +40 | +12 | PIT: Russell Wilson, usually Kenny Pickett · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +89 Elo | PIT 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 59.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3222.9 | Points scored | 27.06th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3216.9 | Points allowed | 26.928th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.0 | Margin | +0.117th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.00 | Yards per play | 5.7111th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4517th of 32 |
| 8th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 7th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 1–426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–0 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.