Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing34/56, 428 YDS, 4 TD
- Chase BrownRushing13 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving11 REC, 264 YDS, 3 TD
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing25/33, 290 YDS, 4 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing16 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Tylan WallaceReceiving3 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:38Ja'Marr Chase 5 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–35
- Q41:49Rashod Bateman 5 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)28–35
- Q45:37Ja'Marr Chase 70 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)28–28
- Q45:50Mark Andrews 18 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Lamar Jackson Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–28
- Q413:30Tylan Wallace 84 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker PAT failed)21–20
- Q34:12Derrick Henry 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)21–14
- Q313:09Ja'Marr Chase 67 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)21–7
- Q20:30Tanner Hudson 3 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)14–7
- Q213:04Nelson Agholor 6 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)7–7
- Q19:23Chase Brown 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q413:30Tylan Wallace 84 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker PAT failed)CIN 21 – 20 BAL · BAL 25% → 55% +30BAL 25% → 55%+30 pts
- Q45:50Mark Andrews 18 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Lamar Jackson Run for Two-Point Conversion)CIN 21 – 28 BAL · BAL 49% → 94% +45BAL 49% → 94%+45 pts
- Q45:37Ja'Marr Chase 70 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 28 – 28 BAL · CIN 5% → 43% +38CIN 5% → 43%+38 pts
- Q41:49Rashod Bateman 5 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)CIN 28 – 35 BAL · BAL 54% → >99% +46BAL 54% → >99%+46 pts
- Q40:38Ja'Marr Chase 5 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CIN 34 – 35 BAL · CIN <1% → 25% +25CIN <1% → 25%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -5.5
- ML CIN +230 / BAL -280
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -8.5
- BAL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 76.7%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -249
- CIN +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 23.5 – 29.0 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 52.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1669 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +6 | CIN: Joe Burrow · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +207 Elo | BAL 76.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 74.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 71.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.2 | Points scored | 31.42nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.2 | Points allowed | 24.323rd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +7.17th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.61 | Yards per play | 7.131st of 32 |
| 9th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6321st of 32 |
| 5th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 0–3 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.