Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing11/17, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- Joe MixonRushing16 CAR, 69 YDS
- Tanner HudsonReceiving4 REC, 49 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing16/26, 264 YDS, 2 TD
- Gus EdwardsRushing12 CAR, 62 YDS, 2 TD
- Odell Beckham Jr.Receiving4 REC, 116 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:08Ja'Marr Chase 2 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Evan McPherson Kick)20–34
- Q44:49Gus Edwards 3 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)13–34
- Q30:26Justin Tucker 47 Yd Field Goal13–27
- Q34:02Justin Tucker 25 Yd Field Goal13–24
- Q39:56Evan McPherson 26 Yd Field Goal13–21
- Q20:23Rashod Bateman 10 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)10–21
- Q22:20Nelson Agholor 37 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)10–14
- Q25:49Joe Mixon 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)10–7
- Q17:32Evan McPherson 50 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q110:02Gus Edwards 3 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:02Gus Edwards 3 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)CIN 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 63% → 79% +15BAL 63% → 79%+15 pts
- Q17:32Evan McPherson 50 Yd Field GoalCIN 3 – 7 BAL · CIN 21% → 27% +6CIN 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q25:49Joe Mixon 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 10 – 7 BAL · CIN 27% → 49% +21CIN 27% → 49%+21 pts
- Q22:20Nelson Agholor 37 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)CIN 10 – 14 BAL · BAL 50% → 73% +23BAL 50% → 73%+23 pts
- Q20:23Rashod Bateman 10 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)CIN 10 – 21 BAL · BAL 73% → 89% +16BAL 73% → 89%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -4.5
- BAL 66%
- Fair odds
- BAL -177
- CIN +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 19.6 – 23.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1629 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | CIN: Joe Burrow · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +115 Elo | BAL 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 63.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3220.2 | Points scored | 27.05th of 32 |
| 16th of 3221.3 | Points allowed | 15.71st of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +11.33rd of 32 |
| 24th of 324.87 | Yards per play | 5.746th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.08 | Yards allowed per play | 4.181st of 32 |
| 10th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.