Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing24/33, 237 YDS, 2 TD
- Gus EdwardsRushing10 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- Nelson AgholorReceiving5 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing27/41, 222 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Joe MixonRushing13 CAR, 59 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving8 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:28Tee Higgins 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)27–24
- Q411:38Nelson Agholor 17 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)27–17
- Q32:34Tee Higgins 3 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)20–17
- Q38:39Mark Andrews 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)20–10
- Q20:00Justin Tucker 40 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q23:01Evan McPherson 27 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q29:15Justin Tucker 44 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q213:14Charlie Jones 81 Yd Punt Return (Evan McPherson Kick)7–7
- Q17:12Gus Edwards 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:14Charlie Jones 81 Yd Punt Return (Evan McPherson Kick)BAL 7 – 7 CIN · CIN 29% → 48% +20CIN 29% → 48%+20 pts
- Q38:39Mark Andrews 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 20 – 10 CIN · BAL 63% → 85% +22BAL 63% → 85%+22 pts
- Q32:34Tee Higgins 3 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)BAL 20 – 17 CIN · CIN 12% → 35% +24CIN 12% → 35%+24 pts
- Q411:38Nelson Agholor 17 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 27 – 17 CIN · BAL 67% → 93% +25BAL 67% → 93%+25 pts
- Q43:28Tee Higgins 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)BAL 27 – 24 CIN · CIN <1% → 21% +21CIN <1% → 21%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -1
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 21.8 – 21.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BAL: Lamar Jackson · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +29 Elo | BAL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3225.0 | Points scored | 3.031st of 32 |
| 4th of 329.0 | Points allowed | 24.020th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+16.0 | Margin | −21.030th of 32 |
| 20th of 324.57 | Yards per play | 2.6332nd of 32 |
| 4th of 323.72 | Yards allowed per play | 4.8620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Ravens: last 1