Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing14/31, 82 YDS
- Joe MixonRushing13 CAR, 56 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving5 REC, 39 YDS
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing16/29, 154 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Nick ChubbRushing18 CAR, 106 YDS
- Elijah MooreReceiving3 REC, 43 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:11Harrison Bryant 3 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Deshaun Watson Run for Two-Point Conversion)3–24
- Q411:29Dustin Hopkins 43 Yd Field Goal3–16
- Q32:21Dustin Hopkins 34 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q311:44Evan McPherson 42 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q20:17Deshaun Watson 13 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)0–10
- Q214:15Dustin Hopkins 42 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:15Dustin Hopkins 42 Yd Field GoalCIN 0 – 3 CLE · CLE 54% → 63% +9CLE 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q20:17Deshaun Watson 13 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CIN 0 – 10 CLE · CLE 64% → 84% +20CLE 64% → 84%+20 pts
- Q311:44Evan McPherson 42 Yd Field GoalCIN 3 – 10 CLE · CIN 15% → 23% +8CIN 15% → 23%+8 pts
- Q32:21Dustin Hopkins 34 Yd Field GoalCIN 3 – 13 CLE · CLE 81% → 89% +8CLE 81% → 89%+8 pts
- Q411:29Dustin Hopkins 43 Yd Field GoalCIN 3 – 16 CLE · CLE 93% → 97% +4CLE 93% → 97%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Browns 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1.5
- CLE 55%
- Fair odds
- CLE -123
- CIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 21.1 – 22.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | CIN: Joe Burrow · CLE: Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +36 Elo | CLE 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.