Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing28/44, 242 YDS
- Dameon PierceRushing11 CAR, 38 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving6 REC, 80 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing17/22, 169 YDS, 1 INT
- Lamar JacksonRushing6 CAR, 38 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving9 REC, 78 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:10Justin Tucker 39 Yd Field Goal9–25
- Q413:47Ka'imi Fairbairn 36 Yd Field Goal9–22
- Q35:21Justice Hill 2 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)6–22
- Q39:55Justice Hill 2 Yd Run (Gus Edwards Run for Two-Point Conversion)6–15
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 38 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q23:56Ka'imi Fairbairn 35 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q11:00J.K. Dobbins 4 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:00J.K. Dobbins 4 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)HOU 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 55% → 73% +19BAL 55% → 73%+19 pts
- Q23:56Ka'imi Fairbairn 35 Yd Field GoalHOU 3 – 7 BAL · HOU 25% → 33% +9HOU 25% → 33%+9 pts
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 38 Yd Field GoalHOU 6 – 7 BAL · HOU 33% → 43% +10HOU 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q39:55Justice Hill 2 Yd Run (Gus Edwards Run for Two-Point Conversion)HOU 6 – 15 BAL · BAL 57% → 83% +26BAL 57% → 83%+26 pts
- Q35:21Justice Hill 2 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)HOU 6 – 22 BAL · BAL 85% → 96% +11BAL 85% → 96%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -1.5
- BAL 55%
- Fair odds
- BAL -123
- HOU +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 21.1 – 22.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | HOU: C.J. Stroud · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +36 Elo | BAL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.