Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing26/38, 258 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Josh AllenRushing8 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- Stefon DiggsReceiving6 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing31/44, 348 YDS, 2 TD
- Joe MixonRushing14 CAR, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- Tee HigginsReceiving8 REC, 110 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:32Stefon Diggs 17 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Josh Allen Pass to Stefon Diggs for Two-Point Conversion)18–24
- Q48:08Evan McPherson 20 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q310:21Tyler Bass 34 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q21:37Drew Sample 22 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–21
- Q10:35Joe Mixon 2 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)7–14
- Q16:03Josh Allen 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–7
- Q19:18Irv Smith Jr. 7 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:18Irv Smith Jr. 7 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)BUF 0 – 7 CIN · CIN 52% → 70% +18CIN 52% → 70%+18 pts
- Q16:03Josh Allen 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 7 – 7 CIN · BUF 30% → 48% +18BUF 30% → 48%+18 pts
- Q10:35Joe Mixon 2 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)BUF 7 – 14 CIN · CIN 52% → 71% +19CIN 52% → 71%+19 pts
- Q21:37Drew Sample 22 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)BUF 7 – 21 CIN · CIN 74% → 90% +15CIN 74% → 90%+15 pts
- Q43:32Stefon Diggs 17 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Josh Allen Pass to Stefon Diggs for Two-Point Conversion)BUF 18 – 24 CIN · BUF <1% → 6% +6BUF <1% → 6%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bengals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -0.5
- CIN 52%
- Fair odds
- CIN -111
- BUF +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 21.1 – 21.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BUF: Josh Allen · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +13 Elo | CIN 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3227.8 | Points scored | 18.723rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.0 | Points allowed | 20.613th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+10.8 | Margin | −1.921st of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.91 | Yards per play | 4.5130th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.52 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9131st of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–114th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.