Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing18/33, 269 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing10 CAR, 38 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving5 REC, 72 YDS
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing26/49, 259 YDS, 1 INT
- Joe MixonRushing19 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving12 REC, 141 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:03Tutu Atwell 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)16–19
- Q47:13Evan McPherson 54 Yd Field Goal9–19
- Q33:09Evan McPherson 48 Yd Field Goal9–16
- Q35:34Joe Mixon 14 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)9–13
- Q310:37Brett Maher 42 Yd Field Goal9–6
- Q20:00Evan McPherson 53 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q29:49Brett Maher 23 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q212:55Evan McPherson 49 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q18:22Brett Maher 30 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:49Brett Maher 23 Yd Field GoalLAR 6 – 3 CIN · LAR 52% → 61% +9LAR 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q20:00Evan McPherson 53 Yd Field GoalLAR 6 – 6 CIN · CIN 38% → 49% +10CIN 38% → 49%+10 pts
- Q310:37Brett Maher 42 Yd Field GoalLAR 9 – 6 CIN · LAR 51% → 63% +11LAR 51% → 63%+11 pts
- Q35:34Joe Mixon 14 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)LAR 9 – 13 CIN · CIN 36% → 66% +29CIN 36% → 66%+29 pts
- Q33:09Evan McPherson 48 Yd Field GoalLAR 9 – 16 CIN · CIN 67% → 78% +11CIN 67% → 78%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rams 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -1
- LAR 54%
- Fair odds
- LAR -108
- CIN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 22.3 – 21.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | LAR: Matthew Stafford · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +25 Elo | LAR 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 51.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3226.5 | Points scored | 13.532nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 25.523rd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.0 | Margin | −12.029th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.21 | Yards per play | 3.8232nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.45 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3920th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–120th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Rams: last 2