Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing24/38, 334 YDS
- Kyren WilliamsRushing15 CAR, 52 YDS, 2 TD
- Tutu AtwellReceiving6 REC, 119 YDS
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing16/26, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing12 CAR, 64 YDS
- DK MetcalfReceiving3 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:11Brett Maher 45 Yd Field Goal30–13
- Q44:57Brett Maher 54 Yd Field Goal27–13
- Q49:45Cam Akers 1 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)24–13
- Q32:39Brett Maher 38 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q38:56Kyren Williams 7 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)14–13
- Q24:18Jason Myers 42 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q29:16DK Metcalf 10 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)7–10
- Q10:39Kyren Williams 1 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)7–3
- Q19:52Jason Myers 36 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:39Kyren Williams 1 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)LAR 7 – 3 SEA · LAR 37% → 57% +20LAR 37% → 57%+20 pts
- Q29:16DK Metcalf 10 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)LAR 7 – 10 SEA · SEA 42% → 63% +21SEA 42% → 63%+21 pts
- Q38:56Kyren Williams 7 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)LAR 14 – 13 SEA · LAR 25% → 51% +26LAR 25% → 51%+26 pts
- Q32:39Brett Maher 38 Yd Field GoalLAR 17 – 13 SEA · LAR 52% → 65% +13LAR 52% → 65%+13 pts
- Q49:45Cam Akers 1 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)LAR 24 – 13 SEA · LAR 72% → 95% +24LAR 72% → 95%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Seahawks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -1.5
- SEA 55%
- Fair odds
- SEA -123
- LAR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 21.1 – 22.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | LAR: Matthew Stafford · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +36 Elo | SEA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.