San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing17/25, 206 YDS
- Christian McCaffreyRushing20 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving6 REC, 63 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing34/55, 307 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing14 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving15 REC, 147 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Brett Maher 38 Yd Field Goal30–23
- Q42:59Jake Moody 26 Yd Field Goal30–20
- Q47:13Brett Maher 48 Yd Field Goal27–20
- Q411:28Deebo Samuel 11 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)27–17
- Q31:21Jake Moody 57 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q20:00Brock Purdy 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)17–17
- Q21:45Kyren Williams 4 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)10–17
- Q29:49Kyren Williams 6 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)10–10
- Q213:32Jake Moody 27 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q11:54Brett Maher 43 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q18:25Christian McCaffrey 14 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:25Christian McCaffrey 14 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 0 LAR · SF 46% → 64% +18SF 46% → 64%+18 pts
- Q29:49Kyren Williams 6 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brett Maher Kick)SF 10 – 10 LAR · LAR 33% → 54% +21LAR 33% → 54%+21 pts
- Q21:45Kyren Williams 4 Yd Run (Brett Maher Kick)SF 10 – 17 LAR · LAR 53% → 76% +22LAR 53% → 76%+22 pts
- Q20:00Brock Purdy 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 17 – 17 LAR · SF 24% → 47% +23SF 24% → 47%+23 pts
- Q411:28Deebo Samuel 11 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 27 – 17 LAR · SF 65% → 92% +27SF 65% → 92%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rams 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -1.5
- LAR 55%
- Fair odds
- LAR -121
- SF +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 21.1 – 22.5 LAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | SF: Brock Purdy · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +32 Elo | LAR 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 54.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3230.0 | Points scored | 30.04th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327.0 | Points allowed | 13.04th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+23.0 | Margin | +17.04th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325.92 | Yards per play | 5.468th of 32 |
| 6th of 323.92 | Yards allowed per play | 3.915th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
49ers: last 1