San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing19/29, 220 YDS, 2 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing22 CAR, 152 YDS, 1 TD
- Brandon AiyukReceiving8 REC, 129 YDS, 2 TD
Steelers- Kenny PickettPassing31/46, 232 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Najee HarrisRushing6 CAR, 31 YDS
- Allen RobinsonReceiving5 REC, 64 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:30Jake Moody 40 Yd Field Goal30–7
- Q314:02Christian McCaffrey 65 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)27–7
- Q20:10Pat Freiermuth 3 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Chris Boswell Kick)20–7
- Q28:22Jake Moody 32 Yd Field Goal20–0
- Q213:30Brandon Aiyuk 19 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)17–0
- Q14:38Jake Moody 41 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q19:29Brandon Aiyuk 8 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:29Brandon Aiyuk 8 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 0 PIT · SF 45% → 63% +18SF 45% → 63%+18 pts
- Q14:38Jake Moody 41 Yd Field GoalSF 10 – 0 PIT · SF 64% → 72% +7SF 64% → 72%+7 pts
- Q213:30Brandon Aiyuk 19 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 17 – 0 PIT · SF 74% → 87% +14SF 74% → 87%+14 pts
- Q20:10Pat Freiermuth 3 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Chris Boswell Kick)SF 20 – 7 PIT · PIT 5% → 14% +10PIT 5% → 14%+10 pts
- Q314:02Christian McCaffrey 65 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 27 – 7 PIT · SF 86% → 96% +10SF 86% → 96%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Steelers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -1.5
- PIT 55%
- Fair odds
- PIT -123
- SF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 21.1 – 22.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | SF: Brock Purdy · PIT: Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +36 Elo | PIT 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.