Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing25/37, 315 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing26 CAR, 136 YDS, 2 TD
- Calvin RidleyReceiving7 REC, 122 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing27/40, 359 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Josh AllenRushing4 CAR, 14 YDS, 1 TD
- Stefon DiggsReceiving8 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:11Josh Allen 3 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)25–20
- Q42:56Travis Etienne Jr. 35 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)25–13
- Q44:03Gabe Davis 19 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)18–13
- Q47:44Travis Etienne Jr. 6 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)18–7
- Q21:14Stefon Diggs 15 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)11–7
- Q11:13Brandon McManus 44 Yd Field Goal11–0
- Q16:59Zay Jones 6 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Travis Etienne Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:59Zay Jones 6 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Travis Etienne Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)JAX 8 – 0 BUF · JAX 38% → 59% +21JAX 38% → 59%+21 pts
- Q21:14Stefon Diggs 15 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)JAX 11 – 7 BUF · BUF 24% → 46% +22BUF 24% → 46%+22 pts
- Q47:44Travis Etienne Jr. 6 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 18 – 7 BUF · JAX 72% → 96% +25JAX 72% → 96%+25 pts
- Q44:03Gabe Davis 19 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)JAX 18 – 13 BUF · BUF <1% → 13% +13BUF <1% → 13%+13 pts
- Q42:56Travis Etienne Jr. 35 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 25 – 13 BUF · JAX 91% → >99% +9JAX 91% → >99%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -5
- BUF 67%
- Fair odds
- BUF -171
- JAX +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 20.1 – 24.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +120 Elo | BUF 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 63.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3220.0 | Points scored | 34.82nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3220.5 | Points allowed | 13.82nd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +21.01st of 32 |
| 18th of 324.95 | Yards per play | 5.954th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.41 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.