Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing29/41, 305 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Isiah PachecoRushing12 CAR, 70 YDS
- Skyy MooreReceiving3 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing22/41, 216 YDS
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing12 CAR, 40 YDS
- Christian KirkReceiving11 REC, 110 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:10Harrison Butker 38 Yd Field Goal17–9
- Q413:43Brandon McManus 22 Yd Field Goal14–9
- Q311:30Travis Kelce 9 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)14–6
- Q20:00Brandon McManus 49 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q20:27Skyy Moore 9 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–3
- Q212:59Brandon McManus 32 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:27Skyy Moore 9 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 3 JAX · KC 33% → 57% +24KC 33% → 57%+24 pts
- Q20:00Brandon McManus 49 Yd Field GoalKC 7 – 6 JAX · JAX 43% → 54% +11JAX 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q311:30Travis Kelce 9 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 14 – 6 JAX · KC 47% → 72% +25KC 47% → 72%+25 pts
- Q413:43Brandon McManus 22 Yd Field GoalKC 14 – 9 JAX · JAX 18% → 30% +12JAX 18% → 30%+12 pts
- Q48:10Harrison Butker 38 Yd Field GoalKC 17 – 9 JAX · KC 78% → 90% +12KC 78% → 90%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jaguars 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -3
- JAX 61%
- Fair odds
- JAX -151
- KC +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 20.5 – 23.5 JAX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | KC: Patrick Mahomes · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +79 Elo | JAX 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 60.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3220.0 | Points scored | 31.05th of 32 |
| 17th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 21.017th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +10.08th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.10 | Yards per play | 4.9612th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.26 | Yards allowed per play | 4.069th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Chiefs: last 1