Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing24/32, 241 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing18 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- Calvin RidleyReceiving8 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Anthony Richardson Sr.Passing24/37, 223 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Anthony Richardson Sr.Rushing10 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving8 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:08Travis Etienne Jr. 26 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)31–21
- Q45:14Tank Bigsby 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)24–21
- Q32:27DeForest Buckner 26 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Gay Kick)17–21
- Q38:31Brandon McManus 45 Yd Field Goal17–14
- Q311:25Michael Pittman Jr. 39 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Matt Gay Kick)14–14
- Q24:56Zay Jones 18 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)14–7
- Q214:57Anthony Richardson 2 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)7–7
- Q15:18Calvin Ridley 9 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:56Zay Jones 18 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 14 – 7 IND · JAX 46% → 68% +22JAX 46% → 68%+22 pts
- Q311:25Michael Pittman Jr. 39 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Matt Gay Kick)JAX 14 – 14 IND · IND 28% → 53% +25IND 28% → 53%+25 pts
- Q32:27DeForest Buckner 26 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Gay Kick)JAX 17 – 21 IND · IND 39% → 70% +31IND 39% → 70%+31 pts
- Q45:14Tank Bigsby 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 24 – 21 IND · JAX 19% → 73% +54JAX 19% → 73%+54 pts
- Q44:08Travis Etienne Jr. 26 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 31 – 21 IND · JAX 75% → >99% +24JAX 75% → >99%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1.5
- IND 55%
- Fair odds
- IND -123
- JAX +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 21.1 – 22.6 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +36 Elo | IND 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.