Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing20/32, 218 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing15 CAR, 98 YDS
- Stefon DiggsReceiving8 REC, 111 YDS
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing19/29, 170 YDS, 4 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing10 CAR, 70 YDS
- Curtis SamuelReceiving2 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:46Joey Slye 51 Yd Field Goal37–3
- Q42:15Latavius Murray 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)37–0
- Q410:01AJ Epenesa 32 Yd Interception Return (Tyler Bass Kick)30–0
- Q410:37Josh Allen 10 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)23–0
- Q20:19Tyler Bass 32 Yd Field Goal16–0
- Q21:55Tyler Bass 54 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q10:41Gabe Davis 35 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)10–0
- Q19:29Tyler Bass 36 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:29Tyler Bass 36 Yd Field GoalBUF 3 – 0 WSH · BUF 43% → 51% +8BUF 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q10:41Gabe Davis 35 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 10 – 0 WSH · BUF 53% → 72% +19BUF 53% → 72%+19 pts
- Q21:55Tyler Bass 54 Yd Field GoalBUF 13 – 0 WSH · BUF 77% → 84% +7BUF 77% → 84%+7 pts
- Q20:19Tyler Bass 32 Yd Field GoalBUF 16 – 0 WSH · BUF 85% → 90% +5BUF 85% → 90%+5 pts
- Q410:37Josh Allen 10 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 23 – 0 WSH · BUF 99% → >99% +1BUF 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Commanders 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -2
- WSH 57%
- Fair odds
- WSH -132
- BUF +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 21.2 – 23.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BUF: Josh Allen · WSH: Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +48 Elo | WSH 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3227.0 | Points scored | 27.57th of 32 |
| 5th of 3216.0 | Points allowed | 24.517th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+11.0 | Margin | +3.013th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.38 | Yards per play | 4.8523rd of 32 |
| 29th of 325.75 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0813th of 32 |
| 18th of 280–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Bills: last 2