Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Joshua DobbsPassing21/30, 132 YDS
- James ConnerRushing14 CAR, 62 YDS
- Rondale MooreReceiving3 REC, 33 YDS
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing19/31, 202 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing19 CAR, 59 YDS
- Curtis SamuelReceiving5 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:23Joey Slye 33 Yd Field Goal16–20
- Q411:48Sam Howell 6 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)16–17
- Q310:09Matt Prater 37 Yd Field Goal16–10
- Q20:00Joey Slye 30 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q20:55Cameron Thomas 2 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Prater Kick)13–7
- Q213:26Matt Prater 54 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q10:53Matt Prater 28 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q14:15Brian Robinson Jr. 7 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:15Brian Robinson Jr. 7 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)ARI 0 – 7 WSH · WSH 55% → 73% +18WSH 55% → 73%+18 pts
- Q20:55Cameron Thomas 2 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Prater Kick)ARI 13 – 7 WSH · ARI 43% → 67% +24ARI 43% → 67%+24 pts
- Q310:09Matt Prater 37 Yd Field GoalARI 16 – 10 WSH · ARI 58% → 69% +11ARI 58% → 69%+11 pts
- Q411:48Sam Howell 6 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)ARI 16 – 17 WSH · WSH 21% → 58% +37WSH 21% → 58%+37 pts
- Q42:23Joey Slye 33 Yd Field GoalARI 16 – 20 WSH · WSH 63% → 90% +27WSH 63% → 90%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Commanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -1.5
- WSH 55%
- Fair odds
- WSH -123
- ARI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 21.1 – 22.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | ARI: Joshua Dobbs · WSH: Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +36 Elo | WSH 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.