Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing27/39, 299 YDS, 2 TD
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing18 CAR, 87 YDS, 2 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving5 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing18/32, 308 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Russell WilsonRushing6 CAR, 56 YDS
- Marvin Mims Jr.Receiving2 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Brandon Johnson 50 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)35–33
- Q41:50Wil Lutz 32 Yd Field Goal35–27
- Q47:11Brian Robinson Jr. 15 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)35–24
- Q413:25Brian Robinson Jr. 2 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)28–24
- Q32:11Wil Lutz 31 Yd Field Goal21–24
- Q311:47Terry McLaurin 30 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)21–21
- Q20:00Joey Slye 49 Yd Field Goal14–21
- Q21:47Logan Thomas 4 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Brian Robinson Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)11–21
- Q29:01Brandon Johnson 16 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)3–21
- Q10:12Marvin Mims Jr. 60 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)3–14
- Q10:24Joey Slye 44 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q16:14Jaleel McLaughlin 5 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:14Jaleel McLaughlin 5 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)WSH 0 – 7 DEN · DEN 52% → 70% +18DEN 52% → 70%+18 pts
- Q10:12Marvin Mims Jr. 60 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)WSH 3 – 14 DEN · DEN 63% → 80% +17DEN 63% → 80%+17 pts
- Q311:47Terry McLaurin 30 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 21 – 21 DEN · WSH 25% → 49% +24WSH 25% → 49%+24 pts
- Q413:25Brian Robinson Jr. 2 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 28 – 24 DEN · WSH 34% → 70% +36WSH 34% → 70%+36 pts
- Q47:11Brian Robinson Jr. 15 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 35 – 24 DEN · WSH 76% → 98% +21WSH 76% → 98%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Broncos 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -0.5
- DEN 51%
- Fair odds
- DEN -107
- WSH +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 21.4 – 21.9 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | WSH: Sam Howell · DEN: Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +9 Elo | DEN 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 51.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3220.0 | Points scored | 16.025th of 32 |
| 6th of 3216.0 | Points allowed | 17.010th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+4.0 | Margin | −1.019th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.82 | Yards per play | 4.4827th of 32 |
| 3rd of 323.62 | Yards allowed per play | 4.7511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Commanders: last 1