Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing29/41, 236 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing12 CAR, 46 YDS
- Stefon DiggsReceiving10 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
Jets- Zach WilsonPassing14/21, 140 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing10 CAR, 127 YDS
- Allen LazardReceiving2 REC, 46 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT9:02Xavier Gipson 65 Yd Punt Return16–22
- Q40:02Tyler Bass 50 Yd Field Goal16–16
- Q41:48Greg Zuerlein 30 Yd Field Goal13–16
- Q44:55Garrett Wilson 3 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Greg Zuerlein Kick)13–13
- Q38:59Greg Zuerlein 43 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q20:17Tyler Bass 34 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q24:43Stefon Diggs 5 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)10–3
- Q210:35Greg Zuerlein 26 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q13:05Tyler Bass 40 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:43Stefon Diggs 5 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 10 – 3 NYJ · BUF 46% → 68% +22BUF 46% → 68%+22 pts
- Q44:55Garrett Wilson 3 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Greg Zuerlein Kick)BUF 13 – 13 NYJ · NYJ 7% → 51% +45NYJ 7% → 51%+45 pts
- Q41:48Greg Zuerlein 30 Yd Field GoalBUF 13 – 16 NYJ · NYJ 51% → 87% +36NYJ 51% → 87%+36 pts
- Q40:02Tyler Bass 50 Yd Field GoalBUF 16 – 16 NYJ · BUF <1% → 50% +50BUF <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT9:02Xavier Gipson 65 Yd Punt ReturnBUF 16 – 22 NYJ · NYJ 52% → 85% +33NYJ 52% → 85%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -1.5
- NYJ 55%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -123
- BUF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 21.1 – 22.6 NYJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BUF: Josh Allen · NYJ: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +36 Elo | NYJ 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.