Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Desmond RidderPassing19/31, 191 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing14 CAR, 105 YDS
- Jonnu SmithReceiving6 REC, 95 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing23/30, 207 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing20 CAR, 55 YDS
- Christian KirkReceiving8 REC, 84 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Brandon McManus 38 Yd Field Goal7–23
- Q410:36Brandon McManus 43 Yd Field Goal7–20
- Q311:38Drake London 15 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–17
- Q24:31Darious Williams 61 Yd Interception Return (Brandon McManus Kick)0–17
- Q214:51Brandon McManus 56 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q15:44Calvin Ridley 30 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:44Calvin Ridley 30 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)ATL 0 – 7 JAX · JAX 44% → 63% +19JAX 44% → 63%+19 pts
- Q214:51Brandon McManus 56 Yd Field GoalATL 0 – 10 JAX · JAX 65% → 72% +8JAX 65% → 72%+8 pts
- Q24:31Darious Williams 61 Yd Interception Return (Brandon McManus Kick)ATL 0 – 17 JAX · JAX 76% → 90% +14JAX 76% → 90%+14 pts
- Q311:38Drake London 15 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 7 – 17 JAX · ATL 7% → 20% +13ATL 7% → 20%+13 pts
- Q410:36Brandon McManus 43 Yd Field GoalATL 7 – 20 JAX · JAX 92% → 97% +5JAX 92% → 97%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Falcons 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- JAX +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 22.5 – 20.8 JAX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | ATL: Desmond Ridder · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +54 Elo | ATL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3218.3 | Points scored | 19.021st of 32 |
| 7th of 3218.0 | Points allowed | 25.023rd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −6.023rd of 32 |
| 26th of 324.45 | Yards per play | 5.0315th of 32 |
| 8th of 324.72 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.