Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing14/25, 151 YDS, 3 TD
- AJ DillonRushing15 CAR, 55 YDS
- Dontayvion WicksReceiving2 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD
Falcons- Desmond RidderPassing19/32, 237 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing19 CAR, 124 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving6 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:57Younghoe Koo 25 Yd Field Goal24–25
- Q48:10Younghoe Koo 39 Yd Field Goal24–22
- Q411:48Desmond Ridder 6 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)24–19
- Q30:56Jayden Reed 10 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)24–12
- Q33:07Younghoe Koo 33 Yd Field Goal17–12
- Q310:31Dontayvion Wicks 32 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)17–9
- Q20:12Drake London 3 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo PAT failed)10–9
- Q23:06Anders Carlson 33 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q213:33Jayden Reed 9 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)7–3
- Q13:50Younghoe Koo 24 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:33Jayden Reed 9 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 7 – 3 ATL · GB 38% → 58% +20GB 38% → 58%+20 pts
- Q310:31Dontayvion Wicks 32 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 17 – 9 ATL · GB 51% → 76% +25GB 51% → 76%+25 pts
- Q30:56Jayden Reed 10 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 24 – 12 ATL · GB 71% → 92% +21GB 71% → 92%+21 pts
- Q411:48Desmond Ridder 6 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)GB 24 – 19 ATL · ATL 5% → 25% +20ATL 5% → 25%+20 pts
- Q40:57Younghoe Koo 25 Yd Field GoalGB 24 – 25 ATL · ATL 16% → 70% +53ATL 16% → 70%+53 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Falcons 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -117
- GB +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 21.4 – 22.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | GB: Jordan Love · ATL: Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +25 Elo | ATL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3238.0 | Points scored | 24.010th of 32 |
| 14th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 10.05th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+18.0 | Margin | +14.07th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.48 | Yards per play | 4.6019th of 32 |
| 11th of 324.44 | Yards allowed per play | 3.906th of 32 |
| 1st of 171–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Packers: last 1