Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing15/27, 245 YDS, 3 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing9 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Receiving2 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Bears- Justin FieldsPassing24/37, 216 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Justin FieldsRushing9 CAR, 59 YDS
- Darnell MooneyReceiving4 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:54Roschon Johnson 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–20
- Q412:36Quay Walker 37 Yd Interception Return (Anders Carlson Kick)38–14
- Q413:30Romeo Doubs 4 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)31–14
- Q30:59Darnell Mooney 20 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Khalil Herbert Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–14
- Q36:26Aaron Jones 35 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)24–6
- Q310:19Aaron Jones 1 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)17–6
- Q20:00Anders Carlson 52 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q29:00Cairo Santos 29 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q12:04Cairo Santos 47 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q16:08Romeo Doubs 8 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:08Romeo Doubs 8 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 7 – 0 CHI · GB 45% → 64% +19GB 45% → 64%+19 pts
- Q20:00Anders Carlson 52 Yd Field GoalGB 10 – 6 CHI · GB 50% → 60% +11GB 50% → 60%+11 pts
- Q310:19Aaron Jones 1 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 17 – 6 CHI · GB 62% → 84% +22GB 62% → 84%+22 pts
- Q36:26Aaron Jones 35 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Anders Carlson Kick)GB 24 – 6 CHI · GB 86% → 97% +11GB 86% → 97%+11 pts
- Q30:59Darnell Mooney 20 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Khalil Herbert Run for Two-Point Conversion)GB 24 – 14 CHI · CHI 2% → 12% +11CHI 2% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bears 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- CHI 55%
- Fair odds
- CHI -123
- GB +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 21.1 – 22.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | GB: Jordan Love · CHI: Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +36 Elo | CHI 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.