Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing20/38, 146 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Miles SandersRushing18 CAR, 72 YDS
- Hayden HurstReceiving5 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD
Falcons- Desmond RidderPassing15/18, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler AllgeierRushing15 CAR, 75 YDS, 2 TD
- Kyle Pitts Sr.Receiving2 REC, 44 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:48Tyler Allgeier 3 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)10–24
- Q414:12Tyler Allgeier 3 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)10–17
- Q34:52Younghoe Koo 49 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q310:46Eddy Pineiro 43 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q25:09Hayden Hurst 4 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–7
- Q214:54Bijan Robinson 11 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:54Bijan Robinson 11 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)CAR 0 – 7 ATL · ATL 54% → 73% +19ATL 54% → 73%+19 pts
- Q25:09Hayden Hurst 4 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 7 – 7 ATL · CAR 25% → 46% +21CAR 25% → 46%+21 pts
- Q310:46Eddy Pineiro 43 Yd Field GoalCAR 10 – 7 ATL · CAR 47% → 58% +11CAR 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q34:52Younghoe Koo 49 Yd Field GoalCAR 10 – 10 ATL · ATL 40% → 53% +13ATL 40% → 53%+13 pts
- Q414:12Tyler Allgeier 3 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)CAR 10 – 17 ATL · ATL 53% → 83% +31ATL 53% → 83%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Falcons 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 55%
- Fair odds
- ATL -123
- CAR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 21.2 – 22.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | CAR: Bryce Young · ATL: Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +36 Elo | ATL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.