Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Desmond RidderPassing21/38, 201 YDS
- Bijan RobinsonRushing10 CAR, 33 YDS
- Kyle Pitts Sr.Receiving5 REC, 41 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing22/33, 243 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing17 CAR, 80 YDS
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving9 REC, 102 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:19Younghoe Koo 24 Yd Field Goal6–20
- Q49:50Jared Goff 3 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)3–20
- Q21:53Riley Patterson 24 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q210:05Sam LaPorta 45 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)3–10
- Q211:32Younghoe Koo 48 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q11:46Riley Patterson 37 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:46Riley Patterson 37 Yd Field GoalATL 0 – 3 DET · DET 49% → 57% +8DET 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q211:32Younghoe Koo 48 Yd Field GoalATL 3 – 3 DET · ATL 42% → 51% +9ATL 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q210:05Sam LaPorta 45 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)ATL 3 – 10 DET · DET 49% → 69% +21DET 49% → 69%+21 pts
- Q21:53Riley Patterson 24 Yd Field GoalATL 3 – 13 DET · DET 72% → 80% +8DET 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q49:50Jared Goff 3 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)ATL 3 – 20 DET · DET 94% → >99% +6DET 94% → >99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Falcons 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- ATL 53%
- Fair odds
- ATL -107
- DET +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 22.4 – 22.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | ATL: Desmond Ridder · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +24 Elo | ATL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3224.5 | Points scored | 26.010th of 32 |
| 8th of 3217.0 | Points allowed | 28.528th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+7.5 | Margin | −2.519th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.29 | Yards per play | 5.874th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.24 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Falcons: last 2