Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing32/41, 328 YDS, 2 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing17 CAR, 43 YDS, 2 TD
- DK MetcalfReceiving6 REC, 75 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing28/35, 323 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- David MontgomeryRushing16 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving6 REC, 102 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT5:41Tyler Lockett 6 Yd pass from Geno Smith37–31
- Q40:00Riley Patterson 38 Yd Field Goal31–31
- Q43:08Josh Reynolds 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)31–28
- Q48:04Tre Brown 40 Yd Interception Return (Jason Myers Kick)31–21
- Q410:38Tyler Lockett 3 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)24–21
- Q33:27Jason Myers 25 Yd Field Goal17–21
- Q39:05David Montgomery 4 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)14–21
- Q314:16Kenneth Walker III 3 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)14–14
- Q24:51Kalif Raymond 36 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)7–14
- Q13:49Josh Reynolds 22 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)7–7
- Q17:04Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:05David Montgomery 4 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)SEA 14 – 21 DET · DET 57% → 81% +24DET 57% → 81%+24 pts
- Q410:38Tyler Lockett 3 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 24 – 21 DET · SEA 24% → 63% +39SEA 24% → 63%+39 pts
- Q48:04Tre Brown 40 Yd Interception Return (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 31 – 21 DET · SEA 66% → 95% +29SEA 66% → 95%+29 pts
- Q40:00Riley Patterson 38 Yd Field GoalSEA 31 – 31 DET · DET 0% → 55% +55DET 0% → 55%+55 pts
- OT5:41Tyler Lockett 6 Yd pass from Geno SmithSEA 37 – 31 DET · SEA 47% → 87% +41SEA 47% → 87%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3.5
- DET 62%
- Fair odds
- DET -156
- SEA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 20.3 – 23.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | SEA: Geno Smith · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +86 Elo | DET 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3213.0 | Points scored | 21.014th of 32 |
| 26th of 3230.0 | Points allowed | 20.014th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−17.0 | Margin | +1.014th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.91 | Yards per play | 5.269th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1022nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Seahawks: last 1