Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing20/30, 280 YDS, 2 TD
- Devin SingletaryRushing9 CAR, 41 YDS
- Tank DellReceiving5 REC, 145 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing27/40, 279 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing19 CAR, 88 YDS
- Evan EngramReceiving7 REC, 67 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:10Ka'imi Fairbairn 33 Yd Field Goal37–17
- Q48:59Tank Dell 68 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)34–17
- Q410:40Christian Kirk 26 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)27–17
- Q412:36Ka'imi Fairbairn 26 Yd Field Goal27–10
- Q34:19Andrew Beck 85 Yd Kickoff Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)24–10
- Q34:35Brandon McManus 33 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q311:17Tank Bigsby 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)17–7
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 28 Yd Field Goal17–0
- Q27:27Brevin Jordan 4 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–0
- Q17:35Dameon Pierce 1 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:35Dameon Pierce 1 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 0 JAX · HOU 38% → 57% +19HOU 38% → 57%+19 pts
- Q27:27Brevin Jordan 4 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 14 – 0 JAX · HOU 62% → 81% +19HOU 62% → 81%+19 pts
- Q311:17Tank Bigsby 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)HOU 17 – 7 JAX · JAX 8% → 23% +15JAX 8% → 23%+15 pts
- Q34:35Brandon McManus 33 Yd Field GoalHOU 17 – 10 JAX · JAX 18% → 28% +10JAX 18% → 28%+10 pts
- Q34:19Andrew Beck 85 Yd Kickoff Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 24 – 10 JAX · HOU 72% → 92% +19HOU 72% → 92%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jaguars 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -4
- JAX 64%
- Fair odds
- JAX -166
- HOU +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 20.0 – 23.6 JAX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | HOU: C.J. Stroud · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +101 Elo | JAX 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 62.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3214.5 | Points scored | 20.021st of 32 |
| 27th of 3228.0 | Points allowed | 19.010th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−13.5 | Margin | +1.015th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.35 | Yards per play | 4.6125th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1114th of 32 |
| 18th of 280–1 | Road vs home | 0–114th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Texans: last 2