Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing19/23, 171 YDS, 1 TD
- Zack MossRushing18 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving8 REC, 56 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing30/47, 384 YDS, 2 TD
- Dameon PierceRushing15 CAR, 31 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving7 REC, 146 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q49:48Tank Dell 23 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)31–20
- Q413:24Ka'imi Fairbairn 36 Yd Field Goal31–13
- Q35:50Matt Gay 42 Yd Field Goal31–10
- Q20:10Kylen Granson 4 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)28–10
- Q24:25Ka'imi Fairbairn 29 Yd Field Goal21–10
- Q29:43Zack Moss 11 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)21–7
- Q13:14Nico Collins 8 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–7
- Q19:13Anthony Richardson 15 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)14–0
- Q110:44Anthony Richardson 18 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:44Anthony Richardson 18 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)IND 7 – 0 HOU · IND 45% → 63% +18IND 45% → 63%+18 pts
- Q19:13Anthony Richardson 15 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)IND 14 – 0 HOU · IND 63% → 79% +16IND 63% → 79%+16 pts
- Q13:14Nico Collins 8 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)IND 14 – 7 HOU · HOU 20% → 36% +16HOU 20% → 36%+16 pts
- Q29:43Zack Moss 11 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)IND 21 – 7 HOU · IND 67% → 83% +17IND 67% → 83%+17 pts
- Q20:10Kylen Granson 4 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)IND 28 – 10 HOU · IND 81% → 93% +12IND 81% → 93%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1.5
- HOU 55%
- Fair odds
- HOU -125
- IND +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 21.1 – 22.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +38 Elo | HOU 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3221.0 | Points scored | 9.029th of 32 |
| 28th of 3231.0 | Points allowed | 25.023rd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−10.0 | Margin | −16.027th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.06 | Yards per play | 3.7228th of 32 |
| 21st of 324.96 | Yards allowed per play | 4.5713th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Colts: last 1