Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing25/35, 282 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing8 CAR, 101 YDS, 2 TD
- Tyreek HillReceiving3 REC, 58 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing21/25, 320 YDS, 4 TD
- Latavius MurrayRushing4 CAR, 32 YDS
- Stefon DiggsReceiving6 REC, 120 YDS, 3 TD
Scoring summary
- Q414:55Josh Allen 11 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)20–48
- Q33:00Stefon Diggs 13 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)20–41
- Q35:21Tyler Bass 33 Yd Field Goal20–34
- Q39:30Braxton Berrios 11 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–31
- Q21:39Tyler Bass 53 Yd Field Goal14–31
- Q22:58Stefon Diggs 55 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)14–28
- Q210:02Stefon Diggs 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)14–21
- Q212:47De'Von Achane 10 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)14–14
- Q11:10James Cook 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–14
- Q16:30De'Von Achane 3 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)7–7
- Q110:41Gabe Davis 18 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:41Gabe Davis 18 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)MIA 0 – 7 BUF · BUF 54% → 71% +17BUF 54% → 71%+17 pts
- Q16:30De'Von Achane 3 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 7 – 7 BUF · MIA 28% → 46% +18MIA 28% → 46%+18 pts
- Q11:10James Cook 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)MIA 7 – 14 BUF · BUF 54% → 73% +19BUF 54% → 73%+19 pts
- Q212:47De'Von Achane 10 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 14 – 14 BUF · MIA 27% → 46% +19MIA 27% → 46%+19 pts
- Q210:02Stefon Diggs 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)MIA 14 – 21 BUF · BUF 54% → 74% +20BUF 54% → 74%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -1.5
- BUF 55%
- Fair odds
- BUF -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 22.3 – 23.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +33 Elo | BUF 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3243.3 | Points scored | 30.32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3223.7 | Points allowed | 11.72nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+19.7 | Margin | +18.72nd of 32 |
| 1st of 328.38 | Yards per play | 5.569th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.26 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3118th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.