Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing28/45, 466 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Raheem MostertRushing10 CAR, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyreek HillReceiving11 REC, 215 YDS, 2 TD
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing23/33, 229 YDS, 1 TD
- Austin EkelerRushing16 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- Keenan AllenReceiving6 REC, 76 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:45Tyreek Hill 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders PAT failed)36–34
- Q43:53Cameron Dicker 25 Yd Field Goal30–34
- Q410:03Jason Sanders 45 Yd Field Goal30–31
- Q414:00Joshua Kelley 2 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)27–31
- Q32:12Tyreek Hill 35 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)27–24
- Q39:19Justin Herbert 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)20–24
- Q20:00Jason Sanders 41 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q20:09Cameron Dicker 50 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q21:42River Cracraft 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)17–14
- Q29:07Donald Parham Jr. 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–14
- Q211:43Jason Sanders 23 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q11:15Raheem Mostert 2 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)7–7
- Q14:39Austin Ekeler 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:19Justin Herbert 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)MIA 20 – 24 LAC · LAC 42% → 68% +27LAC 42% → 68%+27 pts
- Q32:12Tyreek Hill 35 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 27 – 24 LAC · MIA 29% → 61% +32MIA 29% → 61%+32 pts
- Q414:00Joshua Kelley 2 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)MIA 27 – 31 LAC · LAC 37% → 72% +35LAC 37% → 72%+35 pts
- Q43:53Cameron Dicker 25 Yd Field GoalMIA 30 – 34 LAC · LAC 61% → 85% +24LAC 61% → 85%+24 pts
- Q41:45Tyreek Hill 4 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders PAT failed)MIA 36 – 34 LAC · MIA 7% → 76% +70MIA 7% → 76%+70 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chargers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- LAC 55%
- Fair odds
- LAC -123
- MIA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 21.1 – 22.5 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +36 Elo | LAC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 55.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.