Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing21/30, 249 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Raheem MostertRushing18 CAR, 121 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving4 REC, 86 YDS
Patriots- Mac JonesPassing31/42, 231 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing15 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- DeVante ParkerReceiving6 REC, 57 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:25Rhamondre Stevenson 2 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)24–17
- Q48:45Raheem Mostert 43 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)24–10
- Q411:21Hunter Henry 6 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)17–10
- Q20:11Tyreek Hill 2 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)17–3
- Q21:49Chad Ryland 49 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q29:39Raheem Mostert 8 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)10–0
- Q13:00Jason Sanders 23 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:00Jason Sanders 23 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 0 NE · MIA 50% → 58% +8MIA 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q29:39Raheem Mostert 8 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 10 – 0 NE · MIA 59% → 78% +19MIA 59% → 78%+19 pts
- Q20:11Tyreek Hill 2 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 17 – 3 NE · MIA 73% → 89% +16MIA 73% → 89%+16 pts
- Q411:21Hunter Henry 6 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)MIA 17 – 10 NE · NE 2% → 16% +13NE 2% → 16%+13 pts
- Q48:45Raheem Mostert 43 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 24 – 10 NE · MIA 87% → 99% +11MIA 87% → 99%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Patriots 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- NE 49%
- Fair odds
- NE -101
- MIA +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 22.4 – 22.4 NE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · NE: Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +5 Elo | MIA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 50.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3236.0 | Points scored | 20.021st of 32 |
| 31st of 3234.0 | Points allowed | 25.018th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+2.0 | Margin | −5.023rd of 32 |
| 1st of 328.25 | Yards per play | 4.9022nd of 32 |
| 27th of 325.70 | Yards allowed per play | 4.113rd of 32 |
| 1st of 261–0 | Road vs home | 0–112th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Dolphins: last 1