NFL · 2026
New England Patriots
5-4 · #14 of 32 by Elo
Elo rating
1555
#14 of 32 · 1500 is average
Market rating
1545
#13 of 32 by recent lines
This season
−42
Elo change since opening night
Forecasts on their games
78%
7–2 this season
Offense
+0.6 pts
#14 of 32 · scored a game above average
Defense
+0.9 pts
#10 of 32 · allowed a game below average
By the numbers
This season, regular season, each with its league rank. Scoring and margin are a game; opponent Elo is how strong the teams they've played are.
- Points scored
- 23.4
- 14th of 32
- Points allowed
- 23.0
- 15th fewest of 32
- Margin
- +0.4
- 18th of 32
- Yards per play
- 5.97
- 5th of 32
- Yards allowed per play
- 5.52
- 22nd of 32
- At home
- 3–1
- 9th of 32
- On the road
- 2–3
- 22nd of 32
- Opponent Elo
- 1542
- 4th toughest of 32
Season outlook
From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season and the playoffs, with standings ties broken by coin flip. Every team and how it works
Projected record
9-8
Now 5-4 · middle 80%: 8–11 wins
Make the playoffs
53%
Division: 3% · Top seed: <1%
About 10 wins usually gets them in
Reach the Super Bowl
3%
Win it all
1%
In 137 of 10,000 simulations
Playoff chances this season
Their chance to make the playoffs from each day's simulation of the rest of the season, since Nov 3. Now 53%.
Upcoming
Forecasts for their next games. Their next 2 opponents average 1470 Elo, the 12th-easiest stretch of the league's 32.
Players
Who's been playing, busiest first. Each has projections, prop lines and recent games against the line.
Rating history
Elo over the last two seasons. The dashed line is league average.
Against the line
This season, against each game's closing spread and total.
- Against the spread
- 3–5–1
- Last 10
- 3–5–1
- As the favorite
- 2–3
- As the underdog
- 1–2–1
- Overs–unders
- 5–4
- Overs–unders, last 10
- 5–4
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Recent results
Last ten games and whether the forecast hit.
Last 10, oldest first: L L W L W W W L W L
- L
vs GB 27–45Picked NE 63%Nov 8Miss - W
@ MIA 24–19Picked NE 73%Nov 1Hit - L
@ CHI 24–30Picked CHI 57%Oct 22Hit - W
vs NYJ 26–19Picked NE 76%Oct 18Hit - W
vs LV 45–17Picked NE 75%Oct 11Hit - W
@ BUF 29–26Picked BUF 74%Oct 4Miss - L
@ JAX 6–35Picked JAX 58%Sep 27Hit - W
vs PIT 20–3Picked NE 66%Sep 20Hit - L
@ SEA 10–13Picked SEA 61%Sep 9Hit - Lvs SEA 13–29Picked SEA 67%Feb 8Hit
Injury report
Current ESPN report, with what the model subtracts for their next game.
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
−12 EloDoubtfulTeam rushing leader (102 CAR, 399 YDS, 2 TD)
doubtful
Lan Larison RB
ActiveLarison recorded a four-yard rush and failed to haul in his lone target during the Patriots' 45-27 loss to the Packers on Sunday. He also recorded two tackles (one solo) on special teams.
Kyle Williams WR
ActiveWilliams failed to catch either of his two targets in Sunday's 45-27 loss to the Packers.
Eli Raridon TE
ActiveRaridon caught three passes for 52 yards on six targets in Sunday's 45-27 loss to the Packers.
Charles Woods CB
Questionablequestionable
TreVeyon Henderson RB
Questionablequestionable
A.J. Brown WR
Questionablequestionable
Andy Borregales PK
ActiveBorregales made all three of his PATs in Sunday's 45-27 loss to the Packers.
Ben Brown C
Doubtfuldoubtful
Behren Morton QB
ActiveDametrious Crownover OT
ActiveCorey Kiner RB
ActiveKiner rushed eight times for 55 yards and a touchdown and returned nine kickoffs for 224 yards in the Patriots' 45-27 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
DeMario Douglas WR
ActiveDouglas brought in five of nine targets for 102 yards in the Patriots' 45-27 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Drake Maye QB
ActiveMaye completed 21 of 38 passes for 299 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions while adding one rush for three yards in the Patriots' 45-27 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
Mack Hollins WR
ActiveHollins caught three of six targets for 36 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 45-27 loss to the Patriots.
Efton Chism III WR
ActiveChism caught all five of his targets for 49 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 45-27 loss to the Packers.
Hunter Henry TE
ActiveHenry caught all three of his targets for 35 yards during Sunday's 45-27 loss to the Packers.
Brenden Schooler S
QuestionableSchooler (hamstring) will not return to Sunday's game against the Packers.
Will Campbell OT
QuestionableCampbell (knee) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest against the Packers.
Carlton Davis III CB
QuestionableDavis (knee) is questionable to return to New England's matchup Sunday versus the Packers.